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WAPA apple forecast predicts biggest-ever Polish and European harvests

Figures in line with IEG Vu estimates made in April

The World Apple and Pear Association, at its annual Prognosfruit conference, has forecast the 2018 Polish apple harvest at 4.48 million tonnes, and the total European harvest at 12.61 mln tonnes.

These figures are both in line with forecasts made by IEG Vu in April, which were for 4.50 mln tonnes and “possibly over 12.5 mln tonnes”, respectively.

Poland’s final harvest total for 2017 is now put by WAPA at 2.87 mln tonnes, so this year’s harvest represents an increase of 56%, and of 23% over the average for the three years of 2015, 2016 and 2017. The percentage increases for Europe as a whole are 36% and 13%.

Large increases are also forecast for the harvests in Italy (up to 2.2 mln tonnes) and Germany, as well as in countries that only supply fresh market apples, such as the Netherlands (259,000 tonnes) and France (1.50 mln tonnes).

Analysis

This huge harvest is going to rock the markets for fresh fruit and also for apple juice. Apple prices are already tumbling, and as far as AJC goes, the farmers and processors must come to some mutually agreed fruit price that ensures the farmers make a profit, even if it is small. Happily, this seems to be happening. With Chinese AJC already much more expensive than last year (and that without the new punitive tariffs), Polish juice processors can look forward to a good season (after last season’s disastrous showing).

There may even be enough high acid AJC to go around this year, as well.

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