Download the IEG Vu Global Outlook 2018 report!
The IEG Vu Global Outlook 2018 report is now available to download. This special supplement is the ultimate guide to price performance, production and trade for the range of agricultural commodities featured on the IEG Vu website.
Authored by our expert analyst team, and including the latest statistics powered by our Data Tools, the Global Outlook 2018 report reviews the key events of the past 12 months as well as looking ahead to what stakeholders will be discussing this year and forecasting how markets could be shaping up.
The Global Outlook 2017 report made some highly accurate predictions, including the rapid rise in Chinese apple juice concentrate exports to Europe and the volume of US retail orange juice sales among others.
Some of the projections in the IEG Vu Global Outlook 2018 report:
- China will produce as much as 750,000 tonnes of apple juice concentrate in the 2017/18 season, with IEG Vu predicting exports to hit as high as 660,000 tonnes. At the same time, shipments from Poland are estimated to decrease to 123,000 tonnes, compared with 267,000 tonnes last year.
- Thailand’s pineapple juice concentrate exports will stage a mini-comeback in the October 2017–September 2018 period to around 110,000-115,000 tonnes – up from 85,000 tonnes in the previous two years but well below the levels set 5-6 years ago. Prices are predicted to be around USD1,600 per tonne fob.
- High starting prices should push Polish sour cherry production back over 200,000 tonnes in 2018, while the country’s strawberry crop is estimated to move back closer to the average of 170,000 tonnes from recent years. But raspberry output could fall due to low prices and higher labour costs.
- Global sugar output will surge to 189 million tonnes (raw value) in 2017/18, which will push the world sugar market into a 3.9 million tonnes surplus. This compares with a 4.2 million tonne deficit in 2016/17.
- Following record low prices in 2017, skimmed milk powder (SMP) prices will continue to stabilise – although the European Commission’s need to dispose of around 370,000 tonnes in intervention stocks could see the EU executive turning into a price-setter in 2018.
- Global pork production will increase again this year, with US output expected to be up 3.5% and EU also slightly higher on 2017. This should heighten the competition for market share in key global importers such as China in 2018.
- The world almond market will see continued growth in both production and consumption in the next 12 months. Exports globally are also set to rise by 4% to a record 766,000 tonnes with strong sales to the EU, China and India in particular.
- Poor landings saw prices for skipjack tuna in both Bangkok, Thailand and Manta, Ecuador increase rapidly between July and October last year as canneries fought for limited raw material supplies. However, values declined at an equally fast pace in the final months of 2017. IEG Vu predicts this downtrend to continue in the short term.
- The 2017/18 marketing year will see the first global deficit in the coarse grains market for five years, due to a 2.5% production decline. Carryover stocks are expected to be just under 500 mln tonnes, down from 523 mln tonnes in 2016/17.
- The surplus in the cocoa market will continue into 2018, although it could be down to less than 100,000 tonnes by the end of the second or third quarter due to higher demand in Asia, Europe and North America. Prices could increase to around USD2,500-2,700 per tonne if the oversupply issues are addressed.
Read articles online
All articles from the IEG Vu Global Outlook 2018 report are also available in the relevant sections of the IEG Vu website, with the prefix ‘Global Outlook 2018’ in the headline.
These versions feature interactive dashboards and other data that may not be available in the pdf version – follow the hyperlinks below to find the online version:
Canned & Tomato Products
Dried Fruit & Nuts
Grains & Oilseeds
Meat & Livestock
Spices & Exotics
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