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Weekly Cotton Outlook

New York cotton prices continue to be supported by speculative buying though their interest appears to be waning as prices continue to move in a rather tight range. There remains discussion that US stocks will be too tight by year end and that prices will need to move higher to avert a shortage. That has provided fodder for speculative traders. However, this week’s export sales, though positive, do not portend a shortage. One can see that the shipments are in line with current commitments and expected final shipments. History suggests US ending stocks to use ratios at 22% to 23% would have prices nearer 70 cents than 90 cents. Please see our weekly graphic comparing stocks and price.

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