F.O. Licht's Grains Production Update: Little chance of grain glut despite growthThis article was originally published in The Public Ledger
The outlook for the 2013/14 (Jul/Jun; except where stated) grains supplies points to a stable situation when compared with last month. There were some upward revisions for supplies with the United States and the Black Sea. However, the supply outlook for 2013/14 remained at a 6% y/y growth. Going further into the 2013/14 crop year, there may be some support for prices from lower than expected wheat and corn supplies in Argentina. When considering the worldwide inventory levels for the key cereals, there are no signs of a glut of grains on the global market, despite the positive harvest outlooks and the higher stocks with main exporters.