ANALYSISThis article was originally published in Foodnews
TWO billion lbs is a big crop, but is it big enough? At the current growth rate – 15% for the season to date – perhaps not, but there are plenty of variables in play. First and foremost is the actual output from California’s orchards. Then there is demand. While there is every reason to expect that off-take from fast-growing China and India will continue to rise, continuing unrest in the Middle East and the intensifying crisis in the Eurozone are big question marks. Still, the current price range is not particularly high either in historical terms or when compared with other edible nuts currently. This means that even with a slightly larger crop than projected, Californian suppliers could still hold their ground on pricing, and there could well be further increases in store, at least in the short term.